Judianchengjin Investment Co., Ltd.

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Don’t give up your hope for spring just because winter is coming. Don’t be suspicious just because most people are speculating. Don’t stop pursuing truth and value just because it is false and expensive. Life is wonderful because of differences, and investment is outstanding because of independence. The edge of a sword comes from sharpening, and the fragrance of plum blossoms comes from the bitter cold. Without uprightness, the mountains would not be majestic and there would be no mud. Where would the lotus stand gracefully? In the biting wind, my heart remains still.
Bloomberg columnist Br said that regarding the current situation of the Federal Reserve and central banks of various countries, one thing is certain. Each central bank has its own plan, but the reality is that no data can support it. The conundrum boils down to why investors today must pay close attention to what policymakers say and, at the same time, take their words with a grain of salt.
There is uncertainty about the direction of the economy today, but due to the wrong guidance of past policies, policymakers simply do not have the ability to predict how the market will ultimately price in order to ensure that prices are on the right track. For the Federal Reserve, the U.S. presidential election in September is the biggest challenge remaining this year, and investors need to pay attention to the market's immediate reaction as soon as the election results come out. After all, history tells us that for a period of time after a major event occurs, the performance of assets is often mixed with many factors outside of the event.
Now, although central bankers have drawn up a large policy pie, they are more afraid than anyone else that the policies will have unintended consequences, including market distortions. As for policymakers, no one can bear the cost of wrong policies.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech last Friday was not earth-shattering, but people’s reaction to it was more telling. As a Bloomberg columnist said, Yellen will not inspire confidence in the U.S. economy for the time being, which means that the Federal Reserve is still exploring what policy is most suitable for the United States. Yellen said it would make sense to keep the economy heating up for a period of time to help repair the negative effects of a lack of growth during the recession.
In fact, this speech did not implant a profound concept into market participants. It can be said to be a standard economic doctrine. But unfortunately, her delivery style erodes the benefits of maintaining a "repressive economy." Most market participants have long believed the Fed would eventually be forced to take this approach.
In fact, the Fed's hawkishness is unexpectedly strong, and the overly optimistic dot plot is not commensurate with the economic headwinds of recent years. Now it seems that the Fed wants to correct its previous mistakes and make it clear that the market will return to a dovish bias. However, Yellen's ambiguous speech style has made the outside world think that she herself is questioning the correctness of the policy. Sadly, investors now have to keep an eye on an unpredictable and inconsistent Fed.
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