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As crude oil is increasingly traded, oil prices are easily affected by speculative factors, leading to huge fluctuations in the short term. It is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to know the true intrinsic price of crude oil. But theoretically speaking, based on the fact that crude oil is a non-renewable fossil fuel, a reasonable range of oil prices can be estimated in the context of limited supply. In this regard, econometric models may provide the right direction for long-term oil market participants.
For oil prices, the daily volatility of %% is a normal range, but in the end it is inseparable from the true intrinsic price of crude oil. Unless, like the chaotic period the oil market experienced in 2016, we will see inflation-adjusted oil prices in dollars per barrel, or, like during the financial crisis, long-term investors will see oil prices deviate from the true value of the commodity for an extended period of time. If you want to create such a model to judge the true value of oil prices, you can use structural regression analysis. This article will use oil prices as an example.
As for the variables that affect oil prices, the most obvious ones are production and consumption, that is, supply and demand. Therefore, all variables affecting these two factors need to be considered. For example, growth rates are strongly linked to demand for crude oil. Strong demand for crude oil usually means there is a lot of business activity going on in the country. However, on the other hand, rising oil prices will also inhibit market consumption. Taking the early part of 2020 as an example, the global economy was developing rapidly, but high oil prices led to a reduction in crude oil demand. Therefore, the following data were collected year-to-date in this study in column/: Crude oil demand, OPEC and non-OPEC production (in million barrels per day), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, U.S. inflation Rate, crude oil price, U.S. actual growth rate, OPEC oil-producing countries' inventory growth year-on-year, OPEC and non-OPEC countries' oil reserves and a certain proportion of other variables, the data are all from Bloomberg.
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