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Recently, the China Chief Economist Forum published an article stating that as risk assets continue to be turbulent, fear has slightly lessened. However, as the focus of the global market becomes more and more diversified, the trends of different asset types have also emerged. Clearly divided.
U.S. monetary policy should be a central point last week. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that "some lawmakers believe that interest rates need to be raised as soon as possible". Next, Yellen talked about the need to "be more patient with inflation" and the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond interest rate. Last week, the 30-year period increased slightly, while the two-year period, which is most sensitive to interest rate policy, only increased slightly. The steepening of the interest rate curve reflects that the market is re-digesting inflation expectations, and the futures market price reflects a more than 70% probability of the Federal Reserve. The funds rate will be raised monthly.
The second focus that affects global capital sentiment is the earnings of U.S. companies. The market has been worried about this, and it is also the reason behind the recent stock price fluctuations. However, the results of the three banks released late last week were all better than expected, which led to a U-turn in U.S. stocks. The improvement has also supported an originally shaky market sentiment.
China's economy is the third focus of the market. September's export data was significantly weaker than expected. Funds are worried about a global recession, and the prices of cyclical assets, led by commodities, are under pressure. The fourth point of concern is that after the British government decided to launch Lisbon Article 50 negotiations in March next year, the pound exchange rate plummeted. It plunged and then rebounded again last week, and the British exchange rate and national debt were affected.
Fifth, a European bank failed to negotiate a fine with the U.S. Department of Justice and indicated that it may lay off more employees. Together with the layoff of one-fifth of the bank's employees last year, it may be affected. European banking stocks have come under selling pressure. . Finally, after the C meeting, Putin expressed his willingness to cooperate with the production reduction plan. However, the country's oil companies seemed to have little interest in this. Crude oil prices experienced twists and turns, and finally ended the week with a slight increase. But gold still has not found its direction and fell slightly.
Today, the market is once again focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The minutes of the September meeting actually did not provide any new information. Several local Fed chairmen believed that interest rates should be raised immediately, while others believed that it would be better to wait until next year. The decision-making power is still in the hands of several Fed executives. . When will the U.S. raise interest rates and what is the road map for mid-term interest rate hikes, the Big Three, led by Yellen, are still dominated. According to an article published by the China Chief Economist Forum, Yellenga’s decision not to raise interest rates depends on three factors:
) Political pressure: If Hillary is elected president, there is room for delay in raising interest rates, but if Trump is elected The President and the Federal Reserve may immediately raise interest rates and prepare for a deterioration in the political environment.
) External environment: Unless there are political events and market shocks greater than Brexit, and unless the U.S. dollar exchange rate or financial systemic risks are under tremendous pressure, I believe that the Federal Reserve will not take major considerations of external factors at present.
) Economic data: This is what really makes Yellen and her partners uncertain. According to historical experience, the current employment data can roughly trigger C inflation, but there are no obvious signs of an outbreak of inflation for the time being, and no one is sure about next month’s numbers. The Open Market Committee is tentatively managing market expectations for a December rate hike, but everything still depends on the numbers.
In addition, multinational institutions have recently issued warnings about global trade growth, believing that this year's trade growth is significantly lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year, and significantly lower than the post-war average growth level. In fact, this is a sure thing, but we were too optimistic before. Since the new century, emerging markets have provided approximately two-thirds to three-quarters of global growth, and behind this is booming global trade.
In the eyes of economists, global economic and income growth has fallen into a structural low. Analysts who still use past vision and models to predict growth are doomed to be wrong, and governments are doomed to use past methodologies to manage the economy. will fail.
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