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Although the potential impact on the supply side of the large-volume inventory wells previously accumulated and put into production has begun to ferment in the field again. Considering that the production cycle of inventory wells is much shorter than the production caused by adding drilling rigs, if a large number of inventory wells are put into production, it is possible to form a supply increase of 10,000 barrels per day in the short term. However, the huge split in the field's tracking statistics on the number of inventory wells further increases the uncertainty on the crude supply side.
At present, there are huge differences in the statistics of the number of inventory wells by different institutions in the field, especially the data split between two influential institutions in the field: the U.S. Energy Administration and Bloomberg.
The number of inventory wells given is approximately more than the data from Bloomberg. Such a quantitative difference can have a completely different impact on the supply side.
Moreover, there are not only quantitative differences in the data of the two major institutions, but what is even more surprising to the market is that the two institutions' statistics on the increase and decrease of inventory wells in specific months often show completely opposite increases and decreases.
The inventory well statistics of the two major organizations for a specific month will not only differ in quantity, but also in increases and decreases: one shows an increase in inventory wells, and the other shows a decrease in inventory. Therefore, it is often easy to have huge deviations when making fundamental judgments based on different data sources. So how much potential crude oil supply can be formed based on the number of inventory wells?
In view of the fact that there is another influential consulting firm, McKinsey, whose statistics on the number of oil wells in stock are relatively close to those of McKinsey, we chose McKinsey’s data as a reference. According to McKinsey’s calculations, the current inventory of oil wells in North America can generate more than 10,000 barrels per day of new supply.
McKinsey's estimate of the potential crude oil supply that can be generated by inventory wells (based on McKinsey's assumption that the capital expenditure in the early drilling process of inventory wells is sunk cost, so the break-even price is about % lower than taking into account the cost of the drilling process) . It is a quick process for inventory wells to be put into production to create new supply, and it can reach a peak supply of 10,000 barrels per day. Considering the supply generated by new drilling rigs at US$/barrel oil prices, the total supply increase should be sufficient to suppress short-term pressure. Price ability. However, it is important to mention that if we follow Bloomberg’s statistics on the number of inventory wells and McKinsey’s algorithm, the effect will be much weaker.
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