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Bloomberg said on the same day, Beijing time, that the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monthly monetary policy meeting may reveal the pressure exerted on Chairman Yellen by officials who are eager to raise interest rates. The contents of the meeting minutes may help guide market expectations for the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of the year.
The minutes of the meeting are scheduled to be released in Washington on Thursday morning, Beijing time. At this meeting, policymakers decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at .%.%. In a speech last Sunday, Fed Vice Chairman Fisher revealed that the policy decision at the monthly meeting was just a "fluke".
At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on March 1, one of the decision-makers voted against raising interest rates. In addition, an official who did not have the right to vote this year also attended the meeting and expressed his opinions. "I wanted to see how many attendees held the same views as the dissenters," said Perry, a partner at research firm C. We may know from this whether there is a solid basis for raising interest rates this year, or whether if some slightly disappointing economic data emerges, the possibility of raising interest rates will disappear. &r
Based on the price of federal funds futures contracts, investors currently believe that the probability of a rate hike next month is about two-thirds, while the probability of taking action next month is less than 1%.
The number of officials who voted against the Fed's monthly policy meeting hit the highest level since the meeting in 2006, attracting global attention. Yellen has worked hard to maintain internal consensus on keeping interest rates low since taking charge of the Fed, but now the situation is starting to get out of hand. The growing disagreements within the Fed also suggest that the next rate hike may not be too far away.
The three officials who opposed standing still this time are: Kansas Fed President George, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Boston Fed President Rosengren. They all believe that interest rates should be raised at this meeting.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Blinder said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, "Rosengren's change to a hawkish stance is big news in my opinion." &rHe also said that the results of this vote showed that there were serious divisions within the Fed, and that the "rebellion" of the three C members was "very, very rare".
Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, said that the "dovish" figures this month can point to fewer international risks than in the past, but the expectations for what may trigger global turmoil are relatively clear. Slock believes this may force "doves" to discuss Rosengren's concerns about inflation and financial stability. In particular, he hopes the minutes will reveal officials' views on inflation.
Economists believe that the minutes may change expectations for a monthly interest rate hike, but are unlikely to increase expectations for a monthly interest rate hike. C’s next meeting is scheduled for October 1, just one week before the U.S. presidential election. B, chief market analyst at the research institution, pointed out that the decision not to raise interest rates due to election-related reasons makes the Fed still seem political.
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